Olympic predictions…
Five things I see ...
1. China comfortably wins most gold medals. This is the easy one. No stone has been left unturned to ensure this eventuality, despite the rather disingenuous downplaying of expectations by the Chinese. If anyone is contemplating a speculative investment on the stock market, my advice would be to visit your local bookmaker instead and bet on China to win most gold (as opposed to most medals). Odds may appear prohibitive, but you will collect. The bonus with this strategy is that if the hosts find a way to bend the rules in their athletes’ favour, their ‘gold by any means’ mentality will be working for you. Besides, it’s the only way you’ll get a buzz out of CCTV’s coverage of pistol shooting.
2. Beijing 2008 is declared ‘the best Olympiad ever.’ Whatever the excellence of facilities and stewardship, this accolade will not be deserved due to all the broken promises, forced evictions, media restrictions, and petty micro-managing. Such a declaration will have nothing to do with objective measurement and everything to do with the extent to which the Chinese have got IOC president Jacques Rogge by the goolies. I’m not sure what they’ve got on him, but it’s enough to keep him in line for a closing speech that will produce a billion orgasmic cries of delight. My guess is BOCOG have compromising pictures of Rogge receiving a complimentary full-body massage.
3. Security scuffles over flags and t-shirts. Beijing’s finest (and military personnel) have been placed on high alert to look for flags that are not red with five stars, and for clothing slogans that deviate in any way from “Zhongguo jia you”. Such items will be measured (flags) or removed (clothing) if they are found to contravene BOCOG’s paranoid guidelines. Thus, when a surly uniform tells a baffled visitor that the banner is a centimeter too big or that ”Go USA” is not an authorised slogan, expect a tug of war to ensue that will result in torn fabric and fisticuffs. American, British, French, or Japanese flags may even be incinerated for you. There will be no charge for this service.
Wearing slogan-less apparel is no guarantee, either. Stadium pleasure seekers should be aware that they will be denied entry to events if wearing similarly coloured/styled clothing. Such fashion coordination has been identified by Beijing as an indicator of foreign troublemaking. I would feel proud if that was a joke. I’m not and it isn’t.
4. Beijing taxi drivers will be sending their kids overseas next year. This confident prediction is based on both personal experience and the anecdotes of a thousand others that have tangled with the capital’s fleet of cabbies. They’re going to make a mint. With so much tender and non-savvy foreign meat to feed on, these boys are going to make a tank full of piranha seem like a litter of newborn kittens. No manner of written or spoken warning will be sufficient to save the unwary. It won’t be pretty, although Beijing will insist that it is.
To avoid being ripped off by one of these jackals you will need: at least three years residence in the capital behind you; a map of the city implanted in the frontal lobe; minimum upper-intermediate Mandarin; the ability to watch the meter and the road (to circumvent the mystery detour) at the same time; the capacity to shout aggressively when they pretend not to hear your instructions to stop. If you can do all this and more; then you will be a man, my son. You will also be on every Beijing cabby’s blacklist.
(Update: here’s another reason to be mindful of Beijing’s taxis. Unbelievable! Or is it?)
5. A moment of cheating sporting controversy. I’ll be happy to get this one wrong, but I believe we’ll see a moment where fair competition is compromised by the desire for gold. When expectations are so high, when pressure is so great, and when gold medals are given meaning beyond athletic excellence, human nature has a tendency to step outside the boundaries of Olympic sportsmanship and ideals. And I’m not just referring to competitors, but also to officials and spectators.
Liu Xiang has already been told (quite disgracefully, but in keeping with Beijing’s motivational style) that if he doesn’t successfully defend his 110m hurdles title at the Birds Nest, his past accomplishments “will be meaningless”. Now, if China’s authorities are putting this kind of pressure on an athlete, what sort of influence (subtle or otherwise) might they bring to bear on, say, the false-start officials during the 110m hurdles final? I’ll be watching very closely.
China’s national anthem calls for its people to ’stand up’. What it fails to say, and what too few people in China care about, is that it’s the manner in which one stands up that counts. I hope that even if Liu Xiang fails in his bid for back-to-back Olympic gold, the 90 000 in the stadium will rise to both the winner and a man who did his best under intolerable pressure.
August 6th, 2008 at 10:12 am
I recently came accross your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I dont know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog.
Tim Ramsey
August 6th, 2008 at 11:33 am
#6. Millions of people will believe China changes its national flag, since the logo will be shown 10 times per second on TV. If you happen to be there, you can’t find any thing without the logo, even inside toilets.
August 6th, 2008 at 11:49 am
Linan - my understanding is that it’s logs rather than logos that cause offence in Beijing’s public toilets.
August 6th, 2008 at 11:54 am
Tim - thanks for reading and for the encouraging comment. It’s really just a few rants stuck to a wordpress template.
August 6th, 2008 at 3:43 pm
Yeah, no doubt about prediction number one. Number 3 is hilarious, but who knows, we’ll see. And about the taxi drivers, well said, but do they actually care? I did met a taxi driver recently who could speak English surprisingly well, but that was just once.
August 6th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
Serge - thanks for visiting.
I’m sure the taxi drivers don’t give a damn. The Olympics are their dream of gold come true.
You did well to find an English speaker - are you sure he was Chinese?
August 6th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
About changing of the Chinese flag, I thought the Olympic Logo was changed to red with yellow stars instead. I looked at some of the pictures of the torch relay, I can only see red flags. Not a single white with rings around.
But this is not a prediction, it is just a description of events just happened.
What I would predict is that all future Olympic Games will be held in China. It is the only country willing to spend money to hold the games.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:04 am
Bill - China is the only country with both enough money and no checks and balances to prevent the government doing exactly what it wants with it.
August 8th, 2008 at 3:28 am
Am I derailing your precious thread, stuart?
My predicition: The US will win the most gold medals as usual, no doubt. And you will be writing about how upset the Chinese will be.
August 8th, 2008 at 3:38 am
By the way, with regard to 3, do you even know the Chinese aren’t allowed to carry “Go China” banners?
Check your facts.
August 8th, 2008 at 4:49 am
Pffefer - welcome to the land of free speech. Enjoy the ride.
Chinese not allowed to carry “Go China” banners? News to me - I’ll be taking a close look tonight
I promise you, that barring a collective aneurism, China WILL win most gold medals.
August 8th, 2008 at 9:21 pm
Land of free speech? China, where you are at? Or this blog, which is not blocked by the Chinese government? :-p
August 9th, 2008 at 1:52 am
FYI, this blog has run into nanny problems previously, but I just keep leaping right over that firewall.
Back to my predictions. With regard to #3, I’m waiting to read reports from the ground, as CCTV showed us virtually nothing of the crowd or scenes outside the stadium last night.
And when there was a fleeting glimpse of spectators, it was all China - the only foreign faces I saw were the diplomats and politicians below the emperor’s box. This gave the atmosphere during the opening ceremony (from a tv viewer’s perspective) a distinctly non-international feel. And it was way too long.
August 10th, 2008 at 5:50 am
I don’t recall seeing that many foreign faces in the audience at the opening ceremony four years ago in Athens either, all caucasian faces. Maybe it is simply because the citizens of the home country snatched most of the tickets?
August 10th, 2008 at 9:16 pm
“I don’t recall seeing that many foreign faces in the audience at the opening ceremony four years ago in Athens either”
At least they didn’t murder any at the Parthenon.
August 11th, 2008 at 1:20 am
so a madman stabbed someone to death in Beijing. Tragic. My heart goes out to the family of the victim. But what does it have to do with the opening ceremony?
If you don’t feel safe in China stuart, you can go back to Britain. London is actually the “knifing capital” of the world today. Enjoy.
August 11th, 2008 at 4:52 am
“London is actually the “knifing capital” of the world today.”
Is that an Olympic prediction? Mine are doing pretty well.
August 11th, 2008 at 5:49 pm
Not a prediction but reality check.
The US will top the medal count.
August 12th, 2008 at 3:32 am
Medal count is not the same as topping the medal table, which is determined, in the first instance, by the nation that wins most gold. That nation WILL be China.
If I’m wrong, and I won’t be, I’ll happily pack up and leave these shores for the knifing capital of the world.
August 12th, 2008 at 6:45 pm
Alright stuart, you are on. If the US wins the most gold medals you are off to London.
August 13th, 2008 at 2:35 am
Pffefer - you can have the USA, Russia, and the Federated States of Micronesia. I won’t be going anywhere.
Btw, what do I get for being right?
August 13th, 2008 at 8:32 pm
Come Stuart, I thought you were serious, be a man!
If you are right I will be glad to make “China sucks!” part of my signature on your blog.
How about that huh?
August 14th, 2008 at 2:51 am
Wow! Pffefer. You’re going to regret that one. Go China!
August 26th, 2008 at 7:22 am
[...] the coveted accolade of “the best Games ever”. I’m on record in my earlier Olympic predictions post as saying that I felt sure the IOC - and Rogge in particular - would cave in on this point. [...]