… or should I say certainties?
Five things I see ...
1. China comfortably wins most gold medals. This is the easy one. No stone has been left unturned to ensure this eventuality, despite the rather disingenuous downplaying of expectations by the Chinese. If anyone is contemplating a speculative investment on the stock market, my advice would be to visit your local bookmaker instead and bet on China to win most gold (as opposed to most medals). Odds may appear prohibitive, but you will collect. The bonus with this strategy is that if the hosts find a way to bend the rules in their athletes’ favour, their ‘gold by any means’ mentality will be working for you. Besides, it’s the only way you’ll get a buzz out of CCTV’s coverage of pistol shooting.
2. Beijing 2008 is declared ‘the best Olympiad ever.’ Whatever the excellence of facilities and stewardship, this accolade will not be deserved due to all the broken promises, forced evictions, media restrictions, and petty micro-managing. Such a declaration will have nothing to do with objective measurement and everything to do with the extent to which the Chinese have got IOC president Jacques Rogge by the goolies. I’m not sure what they’ve got on him, but it’s enough to keep him in line for a closing speech that will produce a billion orgasmic cries of delight. My guess is BOCOG have compromising pictures of Rogge receiving a complimentary full-body massage.
3. Security scuffles over flags and t-shirts. Beijing’s finest (and military personnel) have been placed on high alert to look for flags that are not red with five stars, and for clothing slogans that deviate in any way from “Zhongguo jia you”. Such items will be measured (flags) or removed (clothing) if they are found to contravene BOCOG’s paranoid guidelines. Thus, when a surly uniform tells a baffled visitor that the banner is a centimeter too big or that ”Go USA” is not an authorised slogan, expect a tug of war to ensue that will result in torn fabric and fisticuffs. American, British, French, or Japanese flags may even be incinerated for you. There will be no charge for this service.
Wearing slogan-less apparel is no guarantee, either. Stadium pleasure seekers should be aware that they will be denied entry to events if wearing similarly coloured/styled clothing. Such fashion coordination has been identified by Beijing as an indicator of foreign troublemaking. I would feel proud if that was a joke. I’m not and it isn’t.
4. Beijing taxi drivers will be sending their kids overseas next year. This confident prediction is based on both personal experience and the anecdotes of a thousand others that have tangled with the capital’s fleet of cabbies. They’re going to make a mint. With so much tender and non-savvy foreign meat to feed on, these boys are going to make a tank full of piranha seem like a litter of newborn kittens. No manner of written or spoken warning will be sufficient to save the unwary. It won’t be pretty, although Beijing will insist that it is.
To avoid being ripped off by one of these jackals you will need: at least three years residence in the capital behind you; a map of the city implanted in the frontal lobe; minimum upper-intermediate Mandarin; the ability to watch the meter and the road (to circumvent the mystery detour) at the same time; the capacity to shout aggressively when they pretend not to hear your instructions to stop. If you can do all this and more; then you will be a man, my son. You will also be on every Beijing cabby’s blacklist.
(Update: here’s another reason to be mindful of Beijing’s taxis. Unbelievable! Or is it?)
5. A moment of cheating sporting controversy. I’ll be happy to get this one wrong, but I believe we’ll see a moment where fair competition is compromised by the desire for gold. When expectations are so high, when pressure is so great, and when gold medals are given meaning beyond athletic excellence, human nature has a tendency to step outside the boundaries of Olympic sportsmanship and ideals. And I’m not just referring to competitors, but also to officials and spectators.
Liu Xiang has already been told (quite disgracefully, but in keeping with Beijing’s motivational style) that if he doesn’t successfully defend his 110m hurdles title at the Birds Nest, his past accomplishments “will be meaningless”. Now, if China’s authorities are putting this kind of pressure on an athlete, what sort of influence (subtle or otherwise) might they bring to bear on, say, the false-start officials during the 110m hurdles final? I’ll be watching very closely.
China’s national anthem calls for its people to ‘stand up’. What it fails to say, and what too few people in China care about, is that it’s the manner in which one stands up that counts. I hope that even if Liu Xiang fails in his bid for back-to-back Olympic gold, the 90 000 in the stadium will rise to both the winner and a man who did his best under intolerable pressure.
