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Certainties Predictions for 2009:

1. Conquest

2. War

3. Famine

4. Death

1. Conquest

The global bullies of this world will continue to try to carve up the planet in the name of religion (Islamic fundamentalism), democracy (America + buddies), harmony (China), or none of the above (Russia). And they will happily enlist the support of minor despots in their quest for the largest slice of power pie, all the while denying their own culpability and pointing fingers at their global rivals. At the same time each will try to undermine the others strategically, militarily, economically, and diplomatically. If any of these apocalyptic quartet come to blows in a non-conventional sense, the games over; we’re all going to hell.

The China angle

No move on Taiwan as Beijing adheres to panda diplomacy and economic sweeteners. Elsewhere in the neighborhood, Burma will continue to dance in tune with China’s checkbook, so no invasion necessary.  As for poor old Africa, expect more Chinese land grabs and immigration as the deals with dodgy dictators continue. Oh yes, and the Chinese navy is in the region now so we might see a conquered dingy or two.

Anyone depressed yet? Don’t be. Like the planet, I’m just warming up.

2. War

Well, this particular horse is set to work overtime – so much unfinished business around the world and only 12 months to get the job done. What a fucking mess, if you’ll excuse the vulgarity. Everyone seems to have a beef with someone and our friendly conquistadors have made damn sure that every grudge-bearing faction is tooled up with enough ammo for a decade of destruction (which is usually followed by more beef).

The China angle

China’s naval deployment does a little moonlighting to ensure the safe passage of boatloads of arms intended for (insert African despot of your choosing). The rest of China’s military is like a coiled cobra, eager to deliver a fatal blow should the CCP feel the need to play the nationalist card and manufacture a border dispute with one of its neighbors. Unlikely in all fairness, but if Hu and the boys are tempted by this strategy, my advice is to avoid Vietnam – you tried in 1979 and failed miserably.

3. Famine

An enduring mystery. Overcrowded though the planet is, she possesses the means to send every inhabitant to the obesity clinic twice a week. The corporate investor and the unscrupulous landowner will insist that it’s more complicated than that. But it shouldn’t be. Famine and his three amigos know how to fill their own plates and they are not in the business of filling anyone else’s. That would just spoil the party.  

The China angle

China’s ability to feed its multitudes has been compromised by the acquisition, legal or otherwise, of farmland in the name of urban development. No matter, the boys at Zhongnanhai have plenty tucked under the mattress to buy up swathes of cheap acreage in Africa, South America, and elsewhere in order to satisfy the Middle Kingdom’s expanding waistlines. Therefore, no famine for China in 2009, but growing discontent in Africa as millions starve while watching their fertile land produce for export.

4. Death

It seems that horseman #4 has the job of mopping up the diseased, the weakened, and the maimed that trail in the wake of his esteemed colleagues. Another busy year, I suspect. No doubt the scythe carrier will slip in the odd natural disaster to really spice things up. In my dreams he miscalculates and brings total destruction to Mugabe’s regime (to name but one) and the ‘Dialogue’ studio at CCTV.

The China angle

Death and Chinese history go hand in hand. As an emerging global power with an alarming degree of moral irresponsibility pragmatism, 2009 looks set to see China continue the export of death to those regimes who like Beijing’s guns for killing their own people. On the home front, 70% of the government’s critics will  be rounded up for ‘re-education’. The remaining 30% will be shot.

Overview  

It could be argued, and probably will be, that China has endured enough conquest, war, famine, and death in its recent past to justify catching a break. So have many other countries, most notably the nations of Africa. Sadly, the only way to save us all from the Four Horsemen’s destructive visitation is if the calamity they bring with them is met with equal outrage, whether they befall our own nation or a people on the other side of world. It’s a tough ask. And I don’t see any current world leaders that are virtuous enough to be up to the task. My worry for 2009 is that the world will move yet further from this idealistic goal.

China has the capacity, but neither the moral leadership nor the political framework, to address such humanitarian issues. This is seriously troubling for a country with China’s clout. In order to change the situation I believe three broad steps are necessary. First, give China’s citizens unfettered access to information relating to their country’s global impact. This can be achieved both through the media and the curriculum. Second, allow the Chinese people to debate the moral issues arising from this information. And third, for their leaders to listen to the outcome of the debate.

And pigs might fly.

Which is one of the reasons I see 2009 being such a good year for the Four Horsemen. It would be lovely to be wrong.

Before I sign off on the year, special thanks to Ryan for his help in getting me up and running, not to mention those that commented (positively or negatively) on my posts. A word of gratitude too for those on my blogroll; I’m constantly amazed at the quality and intelligence of the writing out there – truly an education. Health and Happiness to you all in 2009.

Today’s editorial from the Guardian:

After a thaw during the Olympics, China’s reimposition of censorship on websites run by the BBC and other news organisations is a matter of international concern. The relaxation may have been an opportunistic response to the protests of western journalists, never intended as a permanent change. Web censorship inevitably gets more publicity than China’s equally serious internal clampdown on dissent such as Charter 08’s call for multiparty elections and the protection of human rights. But this does not alter the fact that China’s repressive policies towards bodies such as the BBC and the New York Times are self-defeating and wrong. China’s economy has benefited greatly from the free flow of trade. The country has very ambitious plans to use the internet to attract western buyers to purchase Chinese goods directly from domestic websites instead of shops in London and New York. In this way China could capture the profit margins arising from transportation, wholesaling and retailing at considerable cost to western economies.

That is all very well, but China cannot have it both ways: taking advantage of the internet and a liberal trading regime to increase exports to the west, while setting up firewalls to keep the flow of information from the west out of its sphere. Freedom in this sense really is indivisible. The rot set in when the likes of Yahoo and Google yielded to Chinese pressure by agreeing to censor politically unacceptable content. Google claims that it is better for the Chinese to get filtered information than none at all and, creditably, it at least points out what data is being censored.

China’s web community is quite vibrant and inventive, often re-posting content when censors remove it, using technology to view banned sites, or employing analogies or homonymic characters. But they are countered by China’s army of technology-savvy censors and spin doctors. Buckling down to China’s restrictive rules gave a spurious respectability to such activities without helping Google much since Baidu, its Chinese equivalent, still has 70% of the search market.

China is a huge economic success story. Even now when GDP growth is expected to drop to 7% or less, with all that that implies for unemployment and social unrest, it is still expanding far faster than nearly all competing economies. But with success comes responsibility. Chinese President Hu Jintao marked 30 years of national reform last week by announcing: “There’s no way for us to turn back.” The BBC and the other news organisations should be used as a litmus test of China’s ambitions to carry on going forward. The trading of words is even more important than the trading of goods.

Couldn’t have put it better.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy has met the Dalai Lama in Poland, despite angry threats from Beijing.

China had warned France that multi-billion dollar bilateral trade deals could be harmed if the meeting with the Tibetan spiritual leader went ahead.

Beijing cancelled an EU-China summit last week which France, current holder of the EU presidency, was to host. Read more.

His Holiness gave us all a timely reminder in a speech a few days ago about the dangers of appeasing tyranny. So it was pleasing to read the BBC article this morning over cornflakes, because the Chinese attitude toward the robed one is petty in the extreme, even by their own tantrum-inclined standards. On this occasion the French stood firm, shoulder to shoulder with the rest of the EU. Good for them.

You really need to be in China to get some sense of the vitriolic propaganda thrown at the Dalai Lama, and the revulsion the people consequently feel for this man and his followers. Only in China. Quite literally; only in China. Such is the nature of the constant media onslaught against the good monk, the only question people stop to ask is “why do westerners love a poor, crazy, splittist champion of serfdom and terrorism?” Beijing’s propaganda department has the answer for them: “Because western governments hate China, want to split China, want a weak China, have fooled their people with anti-Chinese propaganda.”

Stop a Chinese student anywhere in the world and ask them about their views and they’ll parrot the same message drilled into their heads by a thousand state-controlled media and classroom messages. There’s simply no desire to explore such matters further; they’ve been warned about the lies they will encounter in the west. There are always going to be a few diehards that believe the Earth is flat. But an entire nation of 1.3 billion people?

Anyone who believes that this state of mass group think is going to enhance the prospects of a more tolerant and peaceful world as China begins to cut itself an increasingly larger slice of world pie, has veered rather too close to the abyss at the end of their own flat Earth.

Sooner or later, one would hope, the CCP are going to have to allow their populace a deeper and more nuanced understanding of world affairs (both historical and current) than that which is provided by the “what you think is what we tell you” straitjackets presently forced upon the media and the national curriculum.

If not, the silly tantrums by Beijing that drive nationalistic sentiment among Chinese will eventually spill over into something worse. Perhaps the greatest irresponsibility of the Chinese government is that they don’t seem to care if it does. The world could do without another bully at the head of the table, and the only way to prevent it happening is to stand up to it. Vive la France !!